Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: With at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning. METHODS: We use an agent-based model to examine the impacts of epidemic control over 480 days. A limited control baseline of case isolation and household member quarantining is used. We measure the impact of lockdown duration and start date on final infection attack sizes. We then apply a 3-month gradual exit strategy, immediately re-opening schools and easing workplace distancing measures, and compare this to long-term social distancing measures. FINDINGS: At baseline, we estimated 815 400 total infections (21.6% of the population). Early lockdown at 5 weeks with no exit strategy averted 18 500 (2.27% of baseline averted), 21 300 (2.61%) and 22 400 (2.75%) infections for 6, 8 and 9-week lockdown durations. Using the exit strategy averted a corresponding 114 700, 121 700 and 126 000 total cases, representing 12.07-13.06% of the total epidemic size under baseline. This diminishes to 9 900-11 300 for a late 8-week start time. Long-term social distancing at 6 and 8-week durations are viable but less effective. INTERPRETATION: Gradual release exit strategies are critical to maintain epidemic suppression under a new normal. We present final infection attack sizes assuming the ongoing importation of cases, which require preparation for a potential second epidemic wave due to ongoing epidemics elsewhere. FUNDING: Singapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre.

Clinical efficacy and long-term immunogenicity of an early triple dose regimen of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination in cancer patients.

INTRODUCTION: Three doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines have been recommended for cancer patients to reduce the risk of severe disease. Anti-neoplastic treatment, such as chemotherapy, may affect long-term vaccine immunogenicity. METHOD: Patients with solid or haematological cancer were recruited from 2 hospitals between July 2021 and March 2022. Humoral response was evaluated using GenScript cPASS surrogate virus neutralisation assays. Clinical outcomes were obtained from medical records and national mandatory-reporting databases. RESULTS: A total of 273 patients were recruited, with 40 having haematological malignancies and the rest solid tumours. Among the participants, 204 (74.7%) were receiving active cancer therapy, including 98 (35.9%) undergoing systemic chemotherapy and the rest targeted therapy or immunotherapy. All patients were seronegative at baseline. Seroconversion rates after receiving 1, 2 and 3 doses of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination were 35.2%, 79.4% and 92.4%, respectively. After 3 doses, patients on active treatment for haematological malignancies had lower antibodies (57.3%±46.2) when compared to patients on immunotherapy (94.1%±9.56, P<0.05) and chemotherapy (92.8%±18.1, P<0.05). SARS-CoV-2 infection was reported in 77 (28.2%) patients, of which 18 were severe. No patient receiving a third dose within 90 days of the second dose experienced severe infection. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the benefit of early administration of the third dose among cancer patients.

IDentif.AI-Omicron: Harnessing an AI-Derived and Disease-Agnostic Platform to Pinpoint Combinatorial Therapies for Clinically Actionable Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Intervention.

Nanomedicine-based and unmodified drug interventions to address COVID-19 have evolved over the course of the pandemic as more information is gleaned and virus variants continue to emerge. For example, some early therapies (e.g., antibodies) have experienced markedly decreased efficacy. Due to a growing concern of future drug resistant variants, current drug development strategies are seeking to find effective drug combinations. In this study, we used IDentif.AI, an artificial intelligence-derived platform, to investigate the drug-drug and drug-dose interaction space of six promising experimental or currently deployed therapies at various concentrations: EIDD-1931, YH-53, nirmatrelvir, AT-511, favipiravir, and auranofin. The drugs were tested in vitro against a live B.1.1.529 (Omicron) virus first in monotherapy and then in 50 strategic combinations designed to interrogate the interaction space of 729 possible combinations. Key findings and interactions were then further explored and validated in an additional experimental round using an expanded concentration range. Overall, we found that few of the tested drugs showed moderate efficacy as monotherapies in the actionable concentration range, but combinatorial drug testing revealed significant dose-dependent drug-drug interactions, specifically between EIDD-1931 and YH-53, as well as nirmatrelvir and YH-53. Checkerboard validation analysis confirmed these synergistic interactions and also identified an interaction between EIDD-1931 and favipiravir in an expanded range. Based on the platform nature of IDentif.AI, these findings may support further explorations of the dose-dependent drug interactions between different drug classes in further pre-clinical and clinical trials as possible combinatorial therapies consisting of unmodified and nanomedicine-enabled drugs, to combat current and future COVID-19 strains and other emerging pathogens.

Efficacy of covid-19 vaccines in immunocompromised patients: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy of covid-19 vaccines between immunocompromised and immunocompetent people. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, Central Register of Controlled Trials, COVID-19 Open Research Dataset Challenge (CORD-19), and WHO covid-19 databases for studies published between 1 December 2020 and 5 November 2021. ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform were searched in November 2021 to identify registered but as yet unpublished or ongoing studies. STUDY SELECTION: Prospective observational studies comparing the efficacy of covid-19 vaccination in immunocompromised and immunocompetent participants. METHODS: A frequentist random effects meta-analysis was used to separately pool relative and absolute risks of seroconversion after the first and second doses of a covid-19 vaccine. Systematic review without meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 antibody titre levels was performed after first, second, and third vaccine doses and the seroconversion rate after a third dose. Risk of bias and certainty of evidence were assessed. RESULTS: 82 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Of these studies, 77 (94%) used mRNA vaccines, 16 (20%) viral vector vaccines, and 4 (5%) inactivated whole virus vaccines. 63 studies were assessed to be at low risk of bias and 19 at moderate risk of bias. After one vaccine dose, seroconversion was about half as likely in patients with haematological cancers (risk ratio 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.50, I2=80%; absolute risk 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.20 to 0.40, I2=89%), immune mediated inflammatory disorders (0.53, 0.39 to 0.71, I2=89%; 0.29, 0.11 to 0.58, I2=97%), and solid cancers (0.55, 0.46 to 0.65, I2=78%; 0.44, 0.36 to 0.53, I2=84%) compared with immunocompetent controls, whereas organ transplant recipients were 16 times less likely to seroconvert (0.06, 0.04 to 0.09, I2=0%; 0.06, 0.04 to 0.08, I2=0%). After a second dose, seroconversion remained least likely in transplant recipients (0.39, 0.32 to 0.46, I2=92%; 0.35, 0.26 to 0.46), with only a third achieving seroconversion. Seroconversion was increasingly likely in patients with haematological cancers (0.63, 0.57 to 0.69, I2=88%; 0.62, 0.54 to 0.70, I2=90%), immune mediated inflammatory disorders (0.75, 0.69 to 0.82, I2=92%; 0.77, 0.66 to 0.85, I2=93%), and solid cancers (0.90, 0.88 to 0.93, I2=51%; 0.89, 0.86 to 0.91, I2=49%). Seroconversion was similar between people with HIV and immunocompetent controls (1.00, 0.98 to 1.01, I2=0%; 0.97, 0.83 to 1.00, I2=89%). Systematic review of 11 studies showed that a third dose of a covid-19 mRNA vaccine was associated with seroconversion among vaccine non-responders with solid cancers, haematological cancers, and immune mediated inflammatory disorders, although response was variable in transplant recipients and inadequately studied in people with HIV and those receiving non-mRNA vaccines. CONCLUSION: Seroconversion rates after covid-19 vaccination were significantly lower in immunocompromised patients, especially organ transplant recipients. A second dose was associated with consistently improved seroconversion across all patient groups, albeit at a lower magnitude for organ transplant recipients. Targeted interventions for immunocompromised patients, including a third (booster) dose, should be performed. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021272088.

The IDentif.AI-x pandemic readiness platform: Rapid prioritization of optimized COVID-19 combination therapy regimens.

IDentif.AI-x, a clinically actionable artificial intelligence platform, was used to rapidly pinpoint and prioritize optimal combination therapies against COVID-19 by pairing a prospective, experimental validation of multi-drug efficacy on a SARS-CoV-2 live virus and Vero E6 assay with a quadratic optimization workflow. A starting pool of 12 candidate drugs developed in collaboration with a community of infectious disease clinicians was first narrowed down to a six-drug pool and then interrogated in 50 combination regimens at three dosing levels per drug, representing 729 possible combinations. IDentif.AI-x revealed EIDD-1931 to be a strong candidate upon which multiple drug combinations can be derived, and pinpointed a number of clinically actionable drug interactions, which were further reconfirmed in SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.351 (Beta) and B.1.617.2 (Delta). IDentif.AI-x prioritized promising drug combinations for clinical translation and can be immediately adjusted and re-executed with a new pool of promising therapies in an actionable path towards rapidly optimizing combination therapy following pandemic emergence.

Booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines for patients with haematological and solid cancer: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Patients with cancer have an increased risk of severe disease and mortality from COVID-19, as the disease and antineoplastic therapy cause reduced vaccine immunogenicity. Booster doses have been proposed to enhance protection, and efficacy data are emerging from several studies. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the proportion of COVID-19 primary vaccination non-responders with cancer who seroconvert after a booster dose. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, CENTRAL and medRxiv were searched from 1st January 2021 to 10th March 2022. Quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal checklist. RESULTS: After the eligibility assessment, 22 studies were included in this systematic review and 17 for meta-analysis of seroconversion in non-responders, pooling a total of 849 patients with haematological cancer and 82 patients with solid cancer. Haematological cancer non-responders exhibited lower seroconversion at 44% (95% CI 36-53%) than solid cancer at 80% (95% CI 69-87%). Individual patient data meta-analysis found the odds of having a meaningful rise in antibody titres to be significantly associated with increased duration between the second and third dose (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03, P ≤ 0.05), age of patient (OR 0.960, 95% CI 0.934-0.987, P ≤ 0.05) and cancer type. With patients with haematological cancer as a reference, patients with lung cancer had 16.8 times the odds of achieving a meaningful increase in antibody titres (OR 16.8, 95% CI 2.95-318, P ≤ 0.05) and gastrointestinal cancer patients had 25.4 times the odds of achieving a meaningful increase in antibody titres (OR 25.4, 95% CI 5.26-492.21, P ≤ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: administration of a COVID-19 vaccine booster dose is effective in improving seroconversion and antibody levels. Patients with haematological cancer consistently demonstrate poorer response to booster vaccines than patients with solid cancer.

Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infections: a multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Highly effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed but variants of concerns are worrisome, especially B.1.617.2 (Delta) which has rapidly spread across the world. We aim to study if vaccination alters virological and serological kinetics in breakthrough infections. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study of patients in Singapore who had received a licensed mRNA vaccine and been admitted to hospital with B.1.617.2 SARS-CoV-2 infection. We compared clinical features, virological and serological kinetics (anti-nucleocapsid, anti-spike and surrogate virus neutralization titres) between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. RESULTS: Out of 218 individuals with B.1.617.2 infection, 84 received an mRNA vaccine of which 71 were fully vaccinated, 130 were unvaccinated and four received a non-mRNA vaccine. Despite significantly older age in the vaccine breakthrough group, only 2.8% (2/71) developed severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen supplementation compared with 53.1% (69/130) in the unvaccinated group (p < 0.001). Odds of severe COVID-19 following vaccination were significantly lower (adjusted odds ratio 0.07 95% CI 0.015-0.335, p 0.001). PCR cycle threshold values were similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals. Early, robust boosting of anti-spike protein antibodies was observed in vaccinated patients; however, these titres were significantly lower against B.1.617.2 than the wildtype vaccine strain. DISCUSSION: The mRNA vaccines are highly effective at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 associated with B.1.617.2 infection. Vaccination is associated with faster decline in viral RNA load and a robust serological response. Vaccination remains a key strategy for control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Viral Dynamics and Immune Correlates of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Severity.

BACKGROUND: Key knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of viral dynamics and immune response of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. METHODS: We evaluated these characteristics and established their association with clinical severity in a prospective observational cohort study of 100 patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean age, 46 years; 56% male; 38% with comorbidities). Respiratory samples (n = 74) were collected for viral culture, serum samples for measurement of IgM/IgG levels (n = 30), and plasma samples for levels of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines (n = 81). Disease severity was correlated with results from viral culture, serologic testing, and immune markers. RESULTS: Fifty-seven (57%) patients developed viral pneumonia, of whom 20 (20%) required supplemental oxygen, including 12 (12%) with invasive mechanical ventilation. Viral culture from respiratory samples was positive for 19 of 74 patients (26%). No virus was isolated when the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value was >30 or >14 days after symptom onset. Seroconversion occurred at a median (IQR) of 12.5 (9-18) days for IgM and 15.0 (12-20) days for IgG; 54/62 patients (87.1%) sampled at day 14 or later seroconverted. Severe infections were associated with earlier seroconversion and higher peak IgM and IgG levels. Levels of IP-10, HGF, IL-6, MCP-1, MIP-1α, IL-12p70, IL-18, VEGF-A, PDGF-BB, and IL-1RA significantly correlated with disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: We found virus viability was associated with lower PCR Ct value in early illness. A stronger antibody response was associated with disease severity. The overactive proinflammatory immune signatures offer targets for host-directed immunotherapy, which should be evaluated in randomized controlled trials.

Range of Varicella Zoster Co-Infections with COVID-19, Singapore.

There have been recent descriptions of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting as 'varicella-like exanthem'. We report three cases of patients with Varicella-Zoster Virus (VZV) and COVID-19 co-infections, presenting in three varied ways. These cases highlight the need for heightened alertness to how such co-infections can present, to pick up overlapping 'dual pathologies' during this current pandemic given that infection control measures including airborne precautions are crucial for both COVID-19 and VZV.

Clinical features and predictors of severity in COVID-19 patients with critical illness in Singapore.

We aim to describe a case series of critically and non-critically ill COVID-19 patients in Singapore. This was a multicentered prospective study with clinical and laboratory details. Details for fifty uncomplicated COVID-19 patients and ten who required mechanical ventilation were collected. We compared clinical features between the groups, assessed predictors of intubation, and described ventilatory management in ICU patients. Ventilated patients were significantly older, reported more dyspnea, had elevated C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase. A multivariable logistic regression model identified respiratory rate (aOR 2.83, 95% CI 1.24-6.47) and neutrophil count (aOR 2.39, 95% CI 1.34-4.26) on admission as independent predictors of intubation with area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.928 (95% CI 0.828-0.979). Median APACHE II score was 19 (IQR 17-22) and PaO2/FiO2 ratio before intubation was 104 (IQR 89-129). Median peak FiO2 was 0.75 (IQR 0.6-1.0), positive end-expiratory pressure 12 (IQR 10-14) and plateau pressure 22 (IQR 18-26) in the first 24 h of ventilation. Median duration of ventilation was 6.5 days (IQR 5.5-13). There were no fatalities. Most COVID-19 patients in Singapore who required mechanical ventilation because of ARDS were extubated with no mortality.

The costs of an expanded screening criteria for COVID-19: A modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Nosocomial infection is an ongoing concern in the COVID-19 outbreak. The effective screening of suspected cases in the healthcare setting is therefore necessary, enabling the early identification and prompt isolation of cases for epidemic containment. We aimed to assess the cost and health outcomes of an extended screening strategy, implemented in Singapore on 07 February 2020, which maximizes case identification in the public healthcare system. METHODS: We explored the effects of the expanded screening criteria which allow clinicians to isolate and investigate patients presenting with undifferentiated fever or respiratory symptoms or chest x-ray abnormalities. We formulated a cost appraisal framework which evaluated the treatment costs averted from the prevention of secondary transmission in the hospital setting, as determined by a branching process infection model, and compared these to the costs of the additional testing required to meet the criteria. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, an R0 of 2.5 and incubation period of 4 days, an estimated 239 (95% CI: 201-287) cases could be averted over 150 days within the hospital setting through ESC. A corresponding $2.36 (2-2.85) million USD in costs could be averted with net cost savings of $124,000 (95% CI: -334,000 to 516,000). In the sensitivity analyses, when positive identification rates (PIR) were above 7%, regardless of R0 and incubation period, all scenarios were cost-saving. CONCLUSION: The expanded screening criteria can help to identify and promptly isolate positive COVID cases in a cost-saving manner or within acceptable cost margins where the costs incurred from the testing of negative patients could be negated by the averted costs. Outbreak control must be sustainable and effective; the proposed screening criteria should be considered to mitigate nosocomial transmission risk within healthcare facilities.

Effect of Remdesivir vs Standard Care on Clinical Status at 11 Days in Patients With Moderate COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Remdesivir demonstrated clinical benefit in a placebo-controlled trial in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but its effect in patients with moderate disease is unknown. Objective: To determine the efficacy of 5 or 10 days of remdesivir treatment compared with standard care on clinical status on day 11 after initiation of treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants: Randomized, open-label trial of hospitalized patients with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and moderate COVID-19 pneumonia (pulmonary infiltrates and room-air oxygen saturation >94%) enrolled from March 15 through April 18, 2020, at 105 hospitals in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The date of final follow-up was May 20, 2020. Interventions: Patients were randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive a 10-day course of remdesivir (n = 197), a 5-day course of remdesivir (n = 199), or standard care (n = 200). Remdesivir was dosed intravenously at 200 mg on day 1 followed by 100 mg/d. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was clinical status on day 11 on a 7-point ordinal scale ranging from death (category 1) to discharged (category 7). Differences between remdesivir treatment groups and standard care were calculated using proportional odds models and expressed as odds ratios. An odds ratio greater than 1 indicates difference in clinical status distribution toward category 7 for the remdesivir group vs the standard care group. Results: Among 596 patients who were randomized, 584 began the study and received remdesivir or continued standard care (median age, 57 [interquartile range, 46-66] years; 227 [39%] women; 56% had cardiovascular disease, 42% hypertension, and 40% diabetes), and 533 (91%) completed the trial. Median length of treatment was 5 days for patients in the 5-day remdesivir group and 6 days for patients in the 10-day remdesivir group. On day 11, patients in the 5-day remdesivir group had statistically significantly higher odds of a better clinical status distribution than those receiving standard care (odds ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.48; P = .02). The clinical status distribution on day 11 between the 10-day remdesivir and standard care groups was not significantly different (P = .18 by Wilcoxon rank sum test). By day 28, 9 patients had died: 2 (1%) in the 5-day remdesivir group, 3 (2%) in the 10-day remdesivir group, and 4 (2%) in the standard care group. Nausea (10% vs 3%), hypokalemia (6% vs 2%), and headache (5% vs 3%) were more frequent among remdesivir-treated patients compared with standard care. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with moderate COVID-19, those randomized to a 10-day course of remdesivir did not have a statistically significant difference in clinical status compared with standard care at 11 days after initiation of treatment. Patients randomized to a 5-day course of remdesivir had a statistically significant difference in clinical status compared with standard care, but the difference was of uncertain clinical importance. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04292730.

Effects of a major deletion in the SARS-CoV-2 genome on the severity of infection and the inflammatory response: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with a 382-nucleotide deletion (∆382) in the open reading frame 8 (ORF8) region of the genome have been detected in Singapore and other countries. We investigated the effect of this deletion on the clinical features of infection. METHODS: We retrospectively identified patients who had been screened for the ∆382 variant and recruited to the PROTECT study-a prospective observational cohort study conducted at seven public hospitals in Singapore. We collected clinical, laboratory, and radiological data from patients' electronic medical records and serial blood and respiratory samples taken during hospitalisation and after discharge. Individuals infected with the ∆382 variant were compared with those infected with wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Exact logistic regression was used to examine the association between the infection groups and the development of hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen (an indicator of severe COVID-19, the primary endpoint). Follow-up for the study's primary endpoint is completed. FINDINGS: Between Jan 22 and March 21, 2020, 278 patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were screened for the ∆382 deletion and 131 were enrolled onto the study, of whom 92 (70%) were infected with the wild-type virus, ten (8%) had a mix of wild-type and ∆382-variant viruses, and 29 (22%) had only the ∆382 variant. Development of hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen was less frequent in the ∆382 variant group (0 [0%] of 29 patients) than in the wild-type only group (26 [28%] of 92; absolute difference 28% [95% CI 14-28]). After adjusting for age and presence of comorbidities, infection with the ∆382 variant only was associated with lower odds of developing hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen (adjusted odds ratio 0·07 [95% CI 0·00-0·48]) compared with infection with wild-type virus only. INTERPRETATION: The ∆382 variant of SARS-CoV-2 seems to be associated with a milder infection. The observed clinical effects of deletions in ORF8 could have implications for the development of treatments and vaccines. FUNDING: National Medical Research Council Singapore.

Two linear epitopes on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that elicit neutralising antibodies in COVID-19 patients.

Given the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, identification of immunogenic targets against the coronavirus spike glycoprotein will provide crucial advances towards the development of sensitive diagnostic tools and potential vaccine candidate targets. In this study, using pools of overlapping linear B-cell peptides, we report two IgG immunodominant regions on SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein that are recognised by sera from COVID-19 convalescent patients. Notably, one is specific to SARS-CoV-2, which is located in close proximity to the receptor binding domain. The other region, which is localised at the fusion peptide, could potentially function as a pan-SARS target. Functionally, antibody depletion assays demonstrate that antibodies targeting these immunodominant regions significantly alter virus neutralisation capacities. Taken together, identification and validation of these neutralising B-cell epitopes will provide insights towards the design of diagnostics and vaccine candidates against this high priority coronavirus.